US FLOWS: LARGEST NET SELL DAY SINCE 2024…
“SELL FIRST, ASK QUESTIONS LATER” mentality continues…outsized net sell overnight leading to the largest net sell print since Oct ’24…Total notional sold was ~1.1× the prior peak (set during the Apr ’25 volatility episode), outflows all 11 sectors, led by Tech, Financials, and Communications. Driven mainly by LO, unwinding ~70% of YTD inflows…19/21 Consensus Longs especially in Growth, Internet, and Financials. HF joined de-risking selling Financials, Large Cap Tech, Materials, and Real Estate. Retail stayed bit, notional bought was ~1.3× YTD average.
AI Disruption Risk narrative is spreading quickly & identifying new “potential victims” almost daily, from software to private credit and alts, and now turning into a broader market wide “witch hunt” including transport logistics overnight.
US TECH DESK FLOWS…Hard tech flows are quiet but what we have seen is consistent with the ongoing narrative—memory pricing pressure flowing through to hardware (seeing shorts in AAPL, DELL). AI semis complex lower on a broad risk-off move but not seeing incremental flow behind it. Analog seen as a bid of a hiding spot, seeing demand in the likes of MCHP and TXN. Today is the first day we have really seen shorts press... mostly concentrated in Software, Hardware & Internet… but was notable in the AM. In the 2H of the session, starting to see some nibbles on the buyside… lg caps mostly across Internet and Media.
US INDUSTRIALS DESK FLOWS: Truckers/Logistics names under pressure… CHRW -18%, EXPD -13.7%, LSTR -18.7%, RXO -23%– Group is in the red and being lead by CHRW & EXPD (Logistics an Brokerage side). They are going after anything with software OR where a company has claimed AI helps them (use less ppl/less cost). CHRW has talked about how they are utilizing AI but that seems to be overshadowed today. There is a growing debate about the potential impact of open source automation agents like Malt Bot (ability to allow small brokers to automate)… you can see it other names like ACM and J which are both -8-10% each. As well as RBA -12.9% (online auctions) is being asked about. And EMR -4.7% u/p (has a software business too).
